As tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States escalate, a familiar argument resurfaces in op-eds and think-tank threads: if only the decision-makers had real skin in the game — if generals’ sons were drafted, if politicians stood in the line of fire — they’d be far less eager for war.
It’s an appealing theory. It’s also built on an assumption so large, and so rarely examined, that accepting it uncritically will lead you to make systematic forecasting errors about some of the most dangerous situations in the world.